Roxana Banabic presents a probabilistic model of granular materials at the International Conference on Structural and Civil Engineering (ICSCE 2026) and wins the Best Presentation Award

Roxana Banabic presented the paper entitled “Probabilistic Models of Unbound Granular Layers under Long-Term Cyclic Loading” at the International Conference on Structural and Civil Engineering (ICSCE 2026), held in A Coruña, Spain, from 22 to 24 October 2026. Her presentation was distinguished with the Best Presentation Award, recognising the quality and relevance of the research developed within the INTENT Project.

The study introduces a probabilistic numerical modelling approach to predict the long-term behaviour and degradation of unbound granular pavement layers subjected to repeated traffic loading. Using DYNASOL, a finite element software under development, the proposed methodology combines a modified linear equivalent approach with mechanistic-empirical models to simulate stiffness degradation, damping evolution, and the accumulation of permanent deformations.

The numerical framework was validated against laboratory cyclic triaxial tests and subsequently applied to the experimental road section instrumented within the INTENT Project near Penafiel, Portugal. Through multiple simulations accounting for variations in vehicle loading, the study demonstrates the potential of probabilistic modelling to characterise the evolution and uncertainty of permanent deformations under long-term traffic loading.

The research contributes to the broader objectives of the INTENT Project by generating synthetic degradation scenarios that complement field measurements from embedded sensors, including bender elements and Smart Rocks. These datasets will support the development of machine-learning algorithms for identifying pavement deterioration and distinguishing gradual fatigue degradation from sudden damage.